Latest reflections in England

This was the week when the cumulative total of vacancies I’ve recorded since the first COVID lockdown in March 2020 passed 30,000. On the face of it, this has given me a fantastic resource from which to paint a picture of a changing post-18 labour market.

However, whilst I always emphasise that my data has lots of flaws and limitations, I think it’s fair to say that the volume of opportunities and the range of occupations they cover will only ever satisfy a tiny percentage of eligible 18/19 year-olds. Various caveats make it difficult to come up with an actual percentage figure, but even 5% would be an over-generous estimate. Having said that, I’m old enough to remember the days before higher and degree apprenticeships ever existed and at least 6^th form and college leavers do now have a definable and viable alternative to the traditional university route. Hence I will continue to look on the bright side!      

This week saw another steady trickle of September 2023 vacancies coming on stream alongside a re-posting of a big tranche of PCDA opportunities with the Met Police, which I have already counted and therefore not included again. In terms of punching above their weight the most prominent ‘counties’ (relatively speaking) were Sussex, Surrey, Merseyside and Dorset. I have picked the latter for my featured image because it’s the second successive week in which Dorset has given a good account of itself and it’s an opportunity to put another of my Jurassic Coast photos to good use.

On a less positive note, there were just four new vacancies all the way down the entire eastern side of the country. And with the East Midlands and North East being very quiet again, I think ‘levelling up’ (or the lack of it) will continue to be a recurring theme for as long as I continue posting these updates.

Other home nations update

There was a little bit of activity in Scotland this week and it’s now my intention to produce my first Scotland report at the end of November, when I will have exactly six months’ worth of data to analyse. I have already prepared a draft structure for this with some new features including a breakdown by town/city, starting salary, university partner and entry requirements as well as by occupation. So far I’ve recorded 243 new vacancies north of the border since 1/6/2022. Meanwhile, Wales and Northern Ireland were very quiet again, but I’m keeping a watching brief on both.

Background

Since the first ‘lockdown’ started on Monday 23^rd March 2020, I’ve kept a record of new higher and degree apprenticeship vacancies posted in England and in doing so have built up an evolving occupational and regional analysis. I largely use data extracted daily from the government’s ‘Find an Apprenticeship’ website, whilst also keeping a close eye on other national vacancy sources including NHS Jobs, Not Going to Uni and Rate My Apprenticeship.

I collated similar data for a period of 70 weeks prior to the March 2020 lockdown and my weekly headline data compares the pre-lockdown and post-lockdown figures, using the two 70-week periods either side of lockdown as a benchmark.

My target audience is Level 3 school and college leavers and those who influence and advise them. Therefore, I only include vacancies at Levels 4 to 7 that ‘work-ready’ 18/19-year-olds seeking their first permanent role could reasonably apply for, whether at the point of leaving school/college or after a few months of temporary experience. If more than a year’s permanent experience is clearly required, I don’t normally include the vacancy in my figures.

I would emphasise the term ‘work-ready’ because academic qualifications alone will never be enough to compete successfully for a higher or degree apprenticeship. Whilst a UCAS points score of 112 is the most frequently quoted minimum entry requirement for DAs (sometimes more and quite often less), it’s otherwise much more about the skills, qualities and insights you can bring.

My data will never be fully reliable because not all vacancies are advertised nationally in a way that also gives an indication of actual numbers and locations. However, the analyses that I’ve built up paint an intriguing picture of what’s out there in a changing post-18 career landscape. The figures also suggest that there’s something of a mismatch between supply and demand in terms of volume (there aren’t enough to go around), location (my regional breakdown raises questions about ‘levelling up’) and the range of occupations available (which probably doesn’t align too well with student aspirations).

One further and slightly confusing factor to take into account is that it’s quite normal for some 18/19-year-old school/college leavers to apply for lower level apprenticeships too, especially at Level 3. It’s also true that a proportion of DA and HA opportunities will be snapped up by older applicants or even graduates and therefore work-readiness really matters to enable 18/19-year-olds to compete successfully.  

Headline data

In England during the latest period from 24^th to 30^th October 2022 I recorded:

• 118 new Degree & L7 Apprenticeship vacancies and
• 102 new Higher Apprenticeship vacancies 

In the 136 weeks since the start of the first COVID-19 lockdown (23^rd March 2020 to 23^rd October 2022) I’ve now recorded:

• 15,413 new Degree Apprenticeships (Levels 6/7) and
• 14,783 new Higher Apprenticeships (Levels 4/5)
• giving a total of 30,196

Using the 70 weeks either side of the initial lockdown (on 23/3/20) as a benchmark, my latest comparative figures are as follows:

• Weekly average in the 70 weeks before lockdown: 82 DAs + 71 HAs = 153 total
• Weekly average in the 70 weeks after lockdown: 84 DAs + 75 HAs = 159 total
• Weekly average in the 136 weeks since lockdown: 113 DAs + 109 HAs = 222 total

This shows that both DAs and HAs have more than fully recovered since the initial reductions in the early days of the pandemic. Whilst it’s fair to say that I’m being more thorough in the way I track down and monitor new vacancies than I was in pre-COVID days, I’ve definitely seen an upward trend in volume compared with how things looked two to three years ago. However, with the threat of recession looming, I’ll be keeping my eye very firmly on the ball in the coming weeks to see if there’s any sign of a slowdown.

Updated analysis by county and region

By county (loosely defined), the 30,196 higher and degree apprenticeships advertised in England since the start of lockdown have been distributed as follows:

• Greater London (7,950)
• Yorkshire (2,677)
• West Midlands (1,822)
• Greater Manchester (1,554)
• Bristol & Gloucestershire (1,189)
• Hampshire (1,033)
• Berkshire (928)
• Hertfordshire (783)
• Surrey (672)
• Nottinghamshire (628)
• Cheshire (588)
• Sussex (587)
• Tyne & Wear (562)
• Derbyshire (533)
• Cambridgeshire (513)
• Essex (495)
• Lancashire (483)
• Warwickshire (474)
• Suffolk (466)
• Merseyside (416)
• Devon (395)
• Somerset & South Bristol (393)
• Staffordshire (381)
• Buckinghamshire (364)
• Wiltshire (351)
• Kent (345)
• County Durham (344)
• Leicestershire (334)
• Oxfordshire (331)
• Bedfordshire (327)
• Dorset (313)
• Northamptonshire (284)
• Norfolk (280)
• Cornwall (273)
• Cumbria (266)
• Worcestershire (216)
• Lincolnshire (208)
• Shropshire (155)
• Northumberland (45)
• Isle of Wight (44)
• Herefordshire (33)
• Rutland (7)
• Home working with no central base (33)
• Not specified (121) 

Regional data: The table below shows how those stats add up regionally in the context of the local 15 to 24-year-old population. The population figures have been extracted from the very latest ONS census data published in June 2022 and my analysis provides the following information:

• First number in bold = the latest cumulative number of vacancies for each region
• Big number in brackets = the resident population of 15 to 24-year-olds in the region using the new ONS data and rounded to the nearest 100
• Third figure in bold indexes my apprenticeship figures against the 15 to 24-year-old population. The ‘index’ shows the combined number of DAs and HAs since March 2020 per 1,000 of that population and the regions are then ‘ranked’ accordingly:

•   7,950   London (1,078,600: 7.37)
•   2,933   South West (645,800: 4.54)
•   3,080   West Midlands (720,900: 4.27)
•   2,879   East of England (685,300: 4.20)
•   4,270   South East (1,040,500: 4.10)
•   2,693   Yorkshire & Humber (670,800: 4.01)
•   3,304   North West (884,600: 3.74)
•   1,942   East Midlands (593,700: 3.27)
•      991   North East (313,000: 3.17)
•      154   Not specified / Home working

• 30,196   Total England (6,633,200: 4.55)

Whilst my data is always going to have flaws in it, the above comparisons nonetheless seem to raise continuing questions about ‘levelling up’. The South West being so well-placed is perhaps surprising and Bristol has to take much of the credit for that. But in general there do still seem to be strong hints of a lack of balance between north and south and especially a distinct London-centric element. It’s this very concern that first prompted me to start collating regional as well as occupational data.

Updated occupational analysis

Each week I update my occupational analysis by breaking down the new vacancies into what I loosely define as ‘occupational areas’, which in some cases differ from the official apprenticeship standards terminology. Since the start of lockdown in March 2020, the complete lists of occupational areas represented in each category are given below. In my view, this provides a fascinating insight into what the emerging occupations are in a changing landscape.

Degree Apprenticeships (Levels 6/7):

In total there have been 15,413 new vacancies spread across 104 occupational areas and minimum starting salaries have ranged from £5,590 to £32,000pa. The occupational breakdown is as follows:

2,988 Police Constables 

1,688 Accountancy/Tax/Audit Professionals

1,357 Digital Technology Solutions (general) *see below for details

  773 Chartered Managers (general)

  749 Software Engineers/Developers

  592 Civil Engineers

  587 Nurses (476 Adult, 86 Mental Health, 20 Learning Disability, 5 Child) 

  503 Chartered Quantity Surveyors 

  490 Data Scientists/Analysts/Engineers

  408 Project Managers

  380 Chartered Building/Property Surveyors  

  316 Electrical/Electronic Engineers

  277 Supply Chain Leaders

  276 Design & Development (Mechanical) Engineers

  236 Food Technology/Production/Manufacturing Professionals

  226 Cyber Security Professionals

  223 Digital Marketing Professionals

  186 Manufacturing Engineers

  165 Nuclear Engineers/Scientists  

  164 Sales Professionals

  159 Retail Leaders

  153 Building Services Design Engineers 

  149 Financial Services Professionals

  140 Solicitors

  133 Laboratory Scientists

  124 Professional Economists 

  116 Aerospace Engineers

  109 Environmental Practitioners

  104 Construction Managers

  100 Network Engineers

    98 Healthcare Science Practitioners (13 Biomedical Science, 13 Cardiac Physiology, 11 Nuclear Medicine Technology, 10 Medical & Clinical Engineering, 10 Neurophysiology, 10 Respiratory Physiology & Sleep Science, 8 Radiation & Radiotherapy Engineering, 7 Radiation & Radiotherapy Physics, 6 Audiology, 5 Digital Healthcare Science, 3 Bioinformatics, 1 Rehabilitation Engineering, 1 Renal Specialist)   

    84 Hospital Operating Department Practitioners  

    75 Digital User Experience (UX) Design Professionals

    75 Railway/Rail Systems Engineers

    67 Control Engineers

    60 Non-Destructive Testing Engineers

    57 Electro-Mechanical/Mechatronics Engineers

    54 Radiographers (35 Diagnostic, 19 Therapeutic)

    44 Materials Scientists/Technologists/Engineers 

    43 Chartered Hospitality Managers

    40 Internal Audit Professionals    

    39 Town Planners     

    38 Creative Digital Design Professionals   

    38 Manufacturing & Production Managers (non-food)        

    37 Occupational Therapists

    36 Clinical Trials Specialists

    36 Podiatrists

    36 Project Control Professionals

    32 Broadcast/Media Systems Engineers

    30 Recruitment Professionals

    29 Building Control Surveyors

    29 Packaging Professionals 

    29 Social Workers 

    28 Chemical Engineers     

    27 Business Analysts  

    24 Chartered Rural Surveyors

    24 Environmental Health Officers

    22 Transport Planners    

    21 Human Resources Professionals  

    19 Weapons Munitions & Explosives Engineers

    17 Architectural Technologists

    17 Journalists

    16 Public Health Practitioners

    15 Architectural Assistants

    15 Geotechnical Engineers

    15 Junior Traders (Global Financial Markets)     

    15 Marketing Managers

    15 Professional Foresters

    14 GIS / Geospatial Mapping & Surveying Professionals

    12 Insurance Professionals

    12 Physiotherapists

      9 Business Managers (Social Change)

      8 Agricultural/Horticultural Advisers

      8 Gas Transmission Engineers

      8 Propulsion Engineers

      6 Actuarial Professionals

      6 Fire Safety Engineers

      6 Sport Development Officers

      5 Chartered Legal Executives   

      5 Operations Analysts

      4 Assistant Teachers / Learning Coaches

      4 Compliance & Risk Specialists

      4 Speech & Language Therapists

      3 Building Information Modelling (BIM) Specialists

      3 Buying & Procurement Professionals

      3 Digital Transformation Engineers

      3 Fitness/Leisure Centre Managers

      3 TV Production Managers

      2 Education Technology Specialists

      2 Midwives

      2 Pensions Professionals

      2 Tax Technologists

      1 Brewer

      1 Charity Manager

      1 Community Centre Manager

      1 Environmental Engineer

      1 Events Manager

      1 Facilities Manager

      1 Human Performance Engineer 

      1 Investment Banking Specialist

      1 Lighting Designer

      1 Marine Engineer

      1 Population Health Intelligence Analyst

      1 Prosthetist & Orthotist     

*Digital Technology Solutions (general) has encompassed or led to the following range of specialisms:   

Software Engineer, Software Developer, Software Tester, Network Engineer, Data Scientist, Data Analyst, Global Data Analyst, Data Architect, Network Architect, Enterprise Architect, Cyber Security Specialist, IT Consultant, Solutions Consultant, Software Implementation Consultant, Software Consultant, Technical/Tech Consultant, Functional Consultant, Project Manager, Project Co-ordinator, Business Intelligence (BI) Developer, Business Systems Engineer/Developer, Automation Developer, Automation Test Developer, Full Stack Developer, Digital Developer, Digital Solutions Architect, Technology Architect, Technology Manager, Innovation Technologist, Innovation Design Analyst, Agile Analyst, Applications Support Analyst, Technical Support Analyst, Business Analyst, Business Technology Analyst, Global Mobility Analyst, Content Analyst, Security Operations Analyst, Process Mining Analyst, SAP Analyst, User Experience Researcher, Junior Product Manager, Infrastructure Specialist, FinTech Specialist, DevOps Engineer, Solutions Engineer, Digital Solutions Engineer, Systems Engineer, Automation Engineer, IT Support Engineer, Service Desk Engineer, Cloud Engineer, Quality Assurance Engineer, Sales Engineer, Sales Account Manager, Sales Operations Manager, Scientific Computing Specialist, Platform Manager, Service Manager, Engineering Information Manager, Amazon Web Services Specialist, Supervisory Control & Data Acquisition Specialist, Fixed Telecoms Specialist, Operations Support Analyst, Support Desk Analyst, IT Support Analyst, IT Service Desk Analyst, IT/Computing Technician, 2^nd Line Support Technician, WordPress Developer, Technology Operations & Service Delivery Specialist, Digital Manufacturing Engineer, Electronic Systems Design & Development Engineer, Solution Engineering & Development Specialist, Client Delivery Specialist, Client Success Specialist, Client Consultant, Operations Resilience & Change Specialist, Microsoft 365 Product Specialist, Innovation Foundry Specialist, Continuous Improvement & Automation Specialist and Railway Signalling Control Systems Specialist.

That’s some list and it keeps growing.

Higher Apprenticeships (Levels 4/5):

In total there have been 14,783 new vacancies spread across 139 occupational areas and minimum starting salaries have ranged from £5,002 to £35,000pa. The occupational breakdown is as follows: 

1,455 Sales Executives

1,123 Software Developers 

1,079 Data Analysts

1,018 Project Management Associates

  955 Trainee Accountants / Accounting Technicians

  636 School/Community Sports Coaches    

  440 Nursing Associates

  411 Construction Site Supervisors

  402 Manufacturing Engineering Technicians 

  393 Business Analysts  

  348 Network Engineers

  344 Taxation Technicians

  295 Software Testers

  279 Quantity Surveying Technicians  

  266 Cyber Security Technologists

  256 Public Relations & Communications Assistants

  249 Commercial Procurement & Supply Practitioners

  238 Retail Assistant Managers

  230 Civil/Site Engineering Technicians

  210 Children/Youth/Family Practitioners

  209 Buying & Merchandising Specialists

  200 Building Services Engineering Technicians

  184 Technician Scientists

  175 Electrical/Electronic Engineering Technicians

  171 Policy Officers (Central/Local Government)

  157 Investment Operations Specialists

  156 Insurance Practitioners  

  150 Reablement Associate Practitioners (NHS)

  147 Marketing Executives

  143 DevOps Engineers

  131 Associate Ambulance Practitioners

  131 Regulatory Compliance Officers

  129 Early Years Lead Practitioners

  118 Junior Management Consultants

    88 Construction Design & Build Technicians

    84 Healthcare Science Associates (22 Audiology & Hearing Aid Dispensers, 16 Bio/Medical Engineering Technicians, 15 Cardiorespiratory & Sleep Physiology, 9 Radiography, 6 Genetics Technology, 4 Mammography, 4 Speech Therapy, 2 Medical Physics, 2 Phlebotomy, 1 Biochemistry, 1 Neurophysiology, 1 Rehabilitation Engineering, 1 Tissue Retrieval)  

    83 Human Resources Specialists     

    77 Food Technology/Engineering/Production Technicians 

    77 Nuclear Technicians     

    76 Quality Practitioners

    73 Mineral Products Technicians 

    72 Recruitment Consultants

    67 Hospitality Managers

    61 Financial Advisers/Paraplanners   

    58 Corporate Responsibility & Sustainability Practitioners  

    56 Healthcare Associate Practitioners (general/unspecified)

    51 Actuarial Technicians

    51 Internal Audit Practitioners

    49 Intelligence Analysts

    46 Adult Social Care Lead Practitioners       

    46 Vehicle Damage Assessors     

    42 Automotive Engineering/Propulsion Technicians

    40 Brewers 

    37 Operations Managers   

    36 Revenue & Welfare Benefits Officers    

    35 Journalists

    34 TV/Media Production Co-ordinators

    33 Business Improvement Practitioners 

    32 Automation & Control Engineers

    32 Learning/Skills & Development Practitioners

    31 Dairy Technologists

    29 Railway Engineering Technicians

    26 Ordnance Munitions & Explosives Technicians

    24 Police Community Support Officers

    21 Estate Agency Negotiators

    21 Housing/Property/Lettings Managers

    19 Market Research Executives

    15 Countryside Rangers

    15 Fibre Cable Engineers

    15 Paralegals

    15 Smart Energy Engineers

    12 Broadcast & Media Systems Technicians

    12 Engineer Surveyors

    12 Land Referencers      

    11 Digital Community Managers

    11 Hygiene Specialists

    10 Air Traffic Controllers

    10 Football Coaches

    10 Information Managers    

      9 Naval Architects / Marine Engineering Technicians

      9 Railway/Passenger Transport Operations Managers

      8 Acoustics Technicians

      8 Emergency Medical Technicians 

      8 Employability Practitioners

      8 Film/TV Post-Production Technical Operators

      7 Computer Games Developers

      7 Counter Fraud Investigators    

      6 BEMS Control Engineers (Building Energy Management Systems)

      6 Digital Accessibility Specialists

      6 Facilities Managers

      6 Fire Safety Inspectors

      6 School Business Professionals     

      5 Antisocial Behaviour & Community Safety Officers

      5 Applications Support Leads

      5 Architectural Technicians

      5 Rehabilitation Officers (Visual Impairment) 

      5 Visual Merchandisers

      4 Aircraft Certifying Technicians

      4 Dental Technicians

      4 Gymnastics/Trampoline Coaches / Rebound Therapists

      4 Space Engineering Technicians

      4 Unified Communications Trouble Shooters

      3 Audiovisual Technicians

      3 Fashion & Textiles Technologists

      3 Pensions Administrators

      3 Port Marine Operations Officers

      3 Senior Culinary Chefs

      3 Sports Development Officers   

      3 Town Planning Assistants 

      3 Utilities Technicians

      2 Arboriculturists      

      2 Auctioneers

      2 Building Information Modelling (BIM) Technicians

      2 Early Intervention Practitioners

      2 Historic Site Advisers

      2 Music Recording Technicians

      2 Tax Technology Technicians

      2 VFX Artists

      2 Water Recycling Engineers

      1 Chaplain

      1 Chemical Process Technician

      1 Clinical Coder

      1 Community Energy Specialist

      1 Cultural Heritage Conservation Technician

      1 Customs & Foreign Exchange Expert

      1 Fitness Club Manager

      1 Fitness Instructor

      1 Health Informatics Specialist

      1 Horticultural / Landscape Design Practitioner

      1 Junior Energy Manager

      1 Lighting Designer

      1 Metrology Technician

      1 Padel Coach

      1 Payroll Assistant Manager

      1 Tennis Coach

      1 Travel Agent

      1 Wedding Accessories Designer

      1 Wedding Venue Co-ordinator

Going forward

All being well I will continue posting frequent updates, usually on Sunday nights or Monday mornings. (NB I won’t be doing one next week, so next up will probably be Week 138 which should get published on 13/11/22).

Whilst I’ve been tracking vacancies in England for more than two and a half years, since 1^st June 2022 I have also started to track Degree and Higher Apprenticeships in Wales and Northern Ireland and Level 6/7 apprenticeships in Scotland. I’ve always been very conscious that my blog only covers England and I intend to redress this with occasional reports starting as soon as I have time and enough data to give it some validity.

© Alan Bullock Careers, 31/10/2022

http://www.alanbullockcareers.com